Friday 3 May - Sunday 12 May:
During the first weekend, northern parts of the UK are likely to be predominantly dry, while areas of rain or showers, perhaps heavy and thundery, clear erratically from the south to usher in a spell of drier weather here too. There is likely to be a fair amount of low cloud in the east at times, with spells of coastal fog, but also temperatures generally above average for the time of year. Through the following week, all areas are likely to see a mixture of periods of rain and drier interludes. Overall, northern, especially north-western, parts of the UK will probably be driest and sunniest, while the more changeable conditions remain more likely in the south. Temperatures should remain close to or a little above normal for early May.

Monday 13 May - Monday 27 May:
In this period, the chances of unsettled weather are slightly less than usual in the north and about the same as usual further south. Therefore, some spells of wet weather are likely for all, but perhaps especially across southern areas while the driest conditions relative to normal are probably further north. The chance of below or above-average temperatures is fairly balanced overall, but it is worth noting that average temperatures themselves rise by around 1C per week at this time of year.

The long-range forecast provided under licence from the Met Office indicates expected weather conditions across the United Kingdom for the next 30 days.

Ensemble data from the ECMWF model shows local temperatures and rainfall for 15 days. Additional ensemble data is now available for Essex towns and cities.

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